ABIO10 PGTW 120830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/120830Z-121800ZJAN2024//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/120751ZJAN2024//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
     (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7S 60.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM 
NORTH OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
SHOWS A RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) 
EMBEDDED WITH THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. A 120159Z SSMIS 91GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 
120554Z ASCAT-B PASS SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 
PREDOMINANTLY 25-30 KNOT WINDS AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH 
WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN SIDE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. 
THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION GIVEN 
THE VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT 
CONTENT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG DUAL 
CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S 
WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER 
THE NEXT 24HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 
120800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.6S 92.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.5S 92.5E, APPROXIMATELY 303 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. A 111204Z SSMIS COLOR37 NEAREST IMAGE 
LENDS A CONFIDENT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE CIRCULATION 
EXISTS IN A DEVELOPING SEASONAL MONSOON TROF UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP 
MOISTURE AND IS BEING PROVIDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY BY A STREAM OF 
MODERATE SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING OUT OF THE MIGRATORY ANTICYCLONES 
ALONG THE 30TH LATITUDE.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 
HOURS REVEALS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED SIGNIFICANTLY 
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES 
INCREASING PROBABLILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK 
OVER THE MEDIUM RANGE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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