WTXS21 PGTW 120800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 97S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
125 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 12.8S 57.8E TO 16.6S 54.6E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 33 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 13.0S 57.0E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7S 60.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 13.0S 57.0E, APPROXIMATELY 437 NM NORTH 
OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A 
RAPIDLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EMBEDDED WITH 
THE DEEP CONVECTION NEAR THE LLCC. A 120159Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICTS FORMATIVE BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. A 120554Z ASCAT-B PASS 
SHOWED A WELL-DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH PREDOMINANTLY 25-30 KNOT WINDS 
AROUND MOST OF THE CIRCULATION, WITH WINDS UP TO 40 KNOTS ON THE WESTERN 
SIDE UNDER THE DEEPEST CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT IS HIGHLY FAVORABLE 
FOR RAPID INTENSIFICATION GIVEN THE VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, HIGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, LOW (5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(VWS), AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST 
AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 33 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
130800Z.
//
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