ABIO10 PGTW 111800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/111800Z-121800ZJAN2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST ) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.9S 59.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 60.0E, APPROXIMATELY 458 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97S) 
PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 12.9S 59.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7S 60.0E, 
APPROXIMATELY 458 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF MAURITIUS. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSTANTIAL DEEPENDING AND EXPANSION 
OF THE CONVECTION ESPECIALLY OVER THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 110930Z 
ASMR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTED A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTION IN THE NORTHWESTERN 
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. THE ENVIRONMENT IS FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT 
GIVEN THE VERY WARM (29-31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, LOW 
(5-10KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND STRONG DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 97S WILL CONTINUE TO 
MOVE TO THE SOUTH-SOUTHWEST AS IT INTENSIFIES OVER THE NEXT 24HRS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST ) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.6S 
92.3E, APPROXIMATELY 466 NM NORTHWEST OF COCOS ISLANDS. AN AREA OF 
CONVECTION (INVEST 98S) HAS DEVELOPED NEAR 7.6S 92.3E, 465NM NORTHWEST 
OF THE COCOS ISLANDS. A 111204Z SSMIS COLOR37 NEAREST IMAGE LENDS  A 
CONFIDENT LOCATION OF THE SYSTEM CENTER. THE CIRCULATION EXISTS IN A 
DEVELOPING  SEASONAL MONSOON TROF UNDER AN AREA OF DEEP MOSITURE AND 
IS BEING PROVIDED LOW LEVEL VORTICITY BY A STREAM OF MODERATE 
SOUTHEASTERLIES FLOWING OUT OF THE MIGRATORY ANTICYCLONES ALONG THE 
30TH LATITUDE.  ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS 
REVEALS CONVECTION HAS DEEPENED AND CONSOLIDATED SIGNIFICANTLY  AROUND 
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. GUIDANCE INDICATES INCREASING 
PROBABLILITY OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG A SOUTHEASTWARD TRACK OVER THE 
MEDIUM RANGE.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE EXTIMATED AT 18-22 
KNOTS AND MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED AT 1007MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW. 
 MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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