ABIO10 PGTW 101800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/101800Z-111800ZJAN2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.9S 78.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.2S 78.7E, APPROXIMATELY 371 NM EAST 
OF DIEGO GARCIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 1548Z ASCAT METOP-B IMAGE SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION WITH 20KT WINDS TO THE NORTH AND BANDING CONVECTION TO THE 
WEST. ENVIROMENTAL ANYLSIS INDICATES 96S IS IN AN AREA OF UNFAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT BASED ON HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (30-
35KTS) AND ZONAL FLOW ALOFT OFFSET BY WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(28-29C). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96S WILL TRACK 
SLIGHTLY NORTHWARD OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WITH A LOW CHANCE TO 
DEVELOP. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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