ABIO10 PGTW 041800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
041800Z-051800ZJAN2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 04S) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 29.1S 
57.3E, APPROXIMATELY 530 NM SOUTH OF MAURITIUS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY 
CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING 
BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY DEPICT A BROAD, ASYMMETRIC LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) BECOMING EMBEDDED IN THE MIDLATITUDE WESTERLIES 
WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION SHEARED TO THE SOUTHEAST. RECENT 
SCATTEROMETER DATA REVEALS 30-35 KT WINDS SOUTH OF THE LLC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL 
TRANSITION DEFINED BY STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT, HIGH (40-50 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, AND COOL (23-25 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS 
ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF 04S WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AS IT GRADUALLY WEAKENS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 30 TO 35 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 996 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, 
REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR 
REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
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