WTXS31 PGTW 040300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 008//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 008    
   01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
    ---
   WARNING POSITION:
   040000Z --- NEAR 26.3S 54.2E
     MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 130 DEGREES AT 18 KTS
     POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 040 NM
     POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
   PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   BECOMING SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
   REPEAT POSIT: 26.3S 54.2E
    ---
   FORECASTS:
   12 HRS, VALID AT:
   041200Z --- 28.4S 57.1E
   MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT
   WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
   SUBTROPICAL
   RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
                            180 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
                            120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
                            100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
    ---
REMARKS:
040300Z POSITION NEAR 26.8S 54.9E.
04JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 353
NM SOUTH OF ST DENIS, HAS TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 18 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. TC 04S IS CURRENTLY TRANSITIONING INTO A 
SUBTROPICAL STORM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
SHOWS THAT TC 04S (ALVARO) HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED, WITH 
AN ELONGATING, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CYCLONIC CIRCULATION, 
STRATOCUMULUS CLOUD BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER FROM THE 
SOUTHWEST, AND ASSOCIATED CONVECTIVE ACTIVITY ISOLATED WELL TO THE 
SOUTHEAST OF THE CENTER DUE TO STRONG NORTHWESTERLY VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR. THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TRACKING SOUTHEASTWARD OVER COOLER 
WATER THROUGHOUT THE REMAINDER OF THE FORECAST PERIOD UNDER THE WELL-
ESTABLISHED STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND EAST. SUPPORT FROM UPPER-
LEVEL DIFFLUENT FLOW SHOULD ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY 
AROUND 35 KNOTS AS IT COMPLETES SUBTROPICAL TRANSITION OVER THE NEXT 
12 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE 
TRACK AND INTENSITY FORECAST. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL 
BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL 
PRESSURE AT 040000Z IS 998 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 
040000Z IS 17 FEET.//
NNNN