WTXS31 PGTW 030300 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 006// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO) WARNING NR 006 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHIO MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 030000Z --- NEAR 22.7S 49.8E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 105 DEGREES AT 11 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 045 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 065 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 22.7S 49.8E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 031200Z --- 24.2S 51.7E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 045 KT, GUSTS 055 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 040000Z --- 26.2S 53.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 135 DEG/ 15 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 28.2S 56.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 120 DEG/ 10 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 29.2S 58.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 030300Z POSITION NEAR 23.1S 50.3E. 03JAN24. TROPICAL CYCLONE 04S (ALVARO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 262 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF ANTANANARIVO, MADAGASCAR, HAS TRACKED EAST- SOUTHEASTWARD AT 11 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 030000Z IS 999 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 030000Z IS 17 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 031500Z AND 040300Z. // NNNN