ABIO10 PGTW 310800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/310800ZDEC2023-311800ZDEC2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/310721ZDEC2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.8S 37.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 38.5E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM 
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. A 310344Z SSMIS 91 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN 
SEMI-CIRCLE AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, AT AROUND 
TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS DRY 
AIR IS INTRODUCED TO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR AND 
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
HIGH. SEE REF A (WTXS21 PGTW 310730) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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