WTXS21 PGTW 310730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95S)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
160 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 20.2S 38.2E TO 21.8S 44.0E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 310700Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 20.4S 38.5E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AT 06
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.8S 37.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 20.4S 38.5E, APPROXIMATELY 158 NM 
NORTHWEST OF EUROPA ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH FLARING DEEP 
CONVECTION BEGINNING TO BUILD OVER THE CENTER. A 310344Z SSMIS 91 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN 
SEMI-CIRCLE AND PORTIONS OF THE WESTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. HOWEVER, AT AROUND 
TAU 24, ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BEGIN TO BECOME LESS FAVORABLE AS DRY 
AIR IS INTRODUCED TO THE SYSTEM FROM THE WEST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD TOWARD MADAGASCAR AND 
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
010730Z.//
NNNN