ABIO10 PGTW 310200
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/310200ZDEC2023-311800ZJAN2024//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.7S 37.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.8S 37.6E, APPROXIMATELY 156 NM EAST 
OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
BULLSEYE 311930Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS A CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONVECTION BUILDING TO THE EAST, WHILE 
A PATCH OF HIGH WIND SHEAR TO THE NORTHWEST DISRUPTS EXISTING 
CONVECTION IN THE REGION, CAUSING IT TO WEAKEN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 95S IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER 
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK EAST-
SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 24 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO 
MEDIUM.//
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