ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/301800Z-311800ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95S) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
19.7S 36.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 19.7S 37.1E, APPROXIMATELY 129 NM EAST 
OF BEIRA, MOZAMBIQUE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) THAT IS BECOMING MORE 
ORGANIZED WITH FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING AND FLARING CONVECTION TO 
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95S 
IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND 
WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD 
AGREEMENT THAT 95S WILL TRACK EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO 
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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