ABPW10 PGTW 200600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/200600Z-210600ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.7N 167.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 172.4E, APPROXIMATELY 561 NM EAST 
OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 200155Z 
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION, 
AND A FULLY EXPOSED AND HIGHLY ELONGATED ROTATION, WITH NO CLEARLY 
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
SHOWS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO CLOSE PROXIMITY 
TO THE EQUATOR, WITH LOW (10-15KT) VWS AND MARGINAL UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, AND WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. AS FOR NUMERICAL 
MODELS, GFS TRACKS SLIGHTLY EAST, THEN WEAKENING, ULTIMATELY 
DISSIPATING AS IT CROSSES THE DATE LINE WITHIN THE NEXT 48 HOURS. 
NAVGEM IS THE ONLY OUTLIER, HAVING IT INTENSIFY, HEADING WEST NORTH-
WEST AS IT TRACKS TOWARD GUAM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94P, REMNANTS OF TC 03S 
JASPER) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.3S 138.9E, APPROXIMATELY 187 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF WEIPA, AUSTRALIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS FLARING, DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SCATTERED OVER AN 
ELONGATED AREA OF LOW-LEVEL ROTATION EVIDENT IN A 200024Z ASCAT-B 
IMAGE. LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEAST TO THE 
SOUTHWEST, THROUGH THE LLCC THAT DEFINES 94P. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION WITH LOW (10-15KT) 
VWS, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND WARM (30-31C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94P WILL LIKELY 
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP AS IT CURVES EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT THREE DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 
TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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