ABPW10 PGTW 190600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/190600Z-200600ZDEC2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/181351ZDEC2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18DEC23 1200Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 7.3N 125.2E, APPROXIMATELY 18 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF DAVAO, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 25 KNOTS GUSTING 
TO 35 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 181500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS 
SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.7N 167.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 168.8E, APPROXIMATELY 357 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
190233Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT FLARING DISORGANIZED CONVECTION 
SCATTERED PRIMARILY ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF AN ELONGATED, AND 
VERY BROAD ROTATION. TROUGHING EXTENDS TO THE NORTHEAST AND SOUTHWEST, 
WITH NO CLEARLY DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS PAINTS MARGINAL CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE 
TO LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS OFFSETTING GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND 
WARM (28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT, WITH 
THE GFS AND ECMWF INDICATING ONLY MODEST DEVELOPMENT WHICH DIES OFF IN 
ABOUT 48 HOURS, WHILE THE NAVGEM DEVELOPS A STRONG TROPICAL CYCLONE IN 
THE SAME TIMEFRAME, ULTIMATELY HEADING WEST TOWARDS THE MARIANAS IN THE 
LONG TERM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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