ABPW10 PGTW 180600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/180600Z-190600ZDEC2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/180151ZDEC2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 18DEC23 0000Z, TROPICAL DEPRESSION 18W (JELAWAT) WAS 
LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 126.6E, APPROXIMATELY 60 NM EAST OF DAVAO CITY, 
PHILIPPINES, AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 30 KNOTS 
GUSTING TO 40 KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 180300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.5N 166.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.7N 167.6E, APPROXIMATELY 292 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
180208Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT DEEP CONVECTIVE LINES ON THE 
EQUATORWARD SIDE OF AN ELONGATED SOUTHWEST TO NORTHEAST ORIENTATED 
TROUGH. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR INTENSIFICATION DUE TO LOW TO MODERATE (15-20KT) VWS AND FAIR DUEL-
CHANNEL OUTFLOW, OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SSTS. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A 
MIXED PICTURE BETWEEN GOOD DEVELOPMENT AND MEANDERING MOTION, BUT AGREE 
ON A GENERALLY WESTWARD TRAJECTORY.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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