ABPW10 PGTW 180000
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/180000Z-180600ZDEC2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/172100DEC2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 17DEC23 1800Z, TROPICAL STORM 18W (JELAWAT) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 7.7N 127.1E, APPROXIMATELY 336 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF SONSOROL, AND 
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPN31 PGTW 172100 COR) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.5N 
166.8E, APPROXIMATELY 250 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF KOSRAE. RECENT ANIMATED 
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION DEVELOPING ALONG THE 
SOUTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES OF A BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL TROUGHING 
EVIDENT IN A 171042Z METOP-B ASCAT PASS. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE 
GENERALLY FAVORABLE, INCLUDING LOW (10-15 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM 
(28-29C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EASTWARD DIFFLUENCE 
ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODELS SHOW A MIXED PICTURE FOR DEVELOPMENT AND QUASI-
STATIONARY, MEANDERING MOTION, WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS BECOMING A 
BIT LESS FAVORABLE OVER THE NEXT SEVERAL DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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