ABPW10 PGTW 151500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/151500Z-160600ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.4N 144.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 139.4E, APPROXIMATELY 319 NM 
EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
(MSI) HIGHLIGHTS THE OVERALL BROAD NATURE OF 91W AND ITS LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) BARELY PEAKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF 
ROBUST CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-32C) SSTS, AND LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY MODERATE 
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS, SPECIFICALLY GFS 
AND NAVGEM, DEPICT 91W TO CONSOLIDATE STEADILY WHILE TRACKING 
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO AND REACH 
WARNING THRESHOLD (25 KTS INTENSITY) PRIOR TO LANDFALL. INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS A STEADY BUILD UP TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
STRENGTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.2N 
172.2E, APPROXIMATELY 427 NM SOUTHEAST OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 151038Z METOP-C SCATTEROMETER 
PARTIAL PASS DEPICT A BROAD, POORLY ORGANIZED, LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT 
WITH WARM (29-30C) SSTS, LOW (05-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), 
AND GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODELS AGREE 92W 
WILL SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE, STAYING QUASISTATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 72 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 13 TO 17 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1)//
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