ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.4N 144.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.9N 139.4E, APPROXIMATELY 319 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
HIGHLIGHTS THE OVERALL BROAD NATURE OF 91W AND ITS LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
(LLC) BARELY PEAKING OUT OF THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF ROBUST 
CONVECTION. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-32C) SSTS, AND LOW TO 
MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY MODERATE 
WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS, SPECIFICALLY GFS 
AND NAVGEM, DEPICT 91W TO CONSOLIDATE STEADILY WHILE TRACKING 
NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN PHILIPPINE ARCHIPELAGO AND REACH 
WARNING THRESHOLD (25 KTS INTENSITY) PRIOR TO LANDFALL. INTENSITY 
GUIDANCE CONSENSUS SHOWS A STEADY BUILD UP TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION 
STRENGTH OVER THE COURSE OF THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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