ABPW10 PGTW 140600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/140600Z-150600ZDEC2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/131351ZDEC2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FINAL WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR
3.7N 145.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.4N 144.2E, APPROXIMATELY 617 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC), WITH 
ISOLATED AND DISORGANIZED CONVECTION SHEARED OFF TO THE NORTHWEST UNDER 
PERSISTENT EASTERLY FLOW ALOFT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS 
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) 
SSTS, AND LOW (10-15 KTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) OFFSET BY 
MODERATE WESTWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL DETERMINISTIC MODELS, 
SPECIFICALLY GFS AND NAVGEM, ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL 
SLOWLY CONSOLIDATE WHILE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD TOWARDS THE SOUTHERN 
PHILIPPINES. GLOBAL ENSEMBLE MODELS INCLUDING ECENS AND GEFS ALSO SHOW A 
STRONG SIGNAL INDICATING DEVELOPMENT OF A TROPICAL DEPRESSION WITHIN THE 
NEXT 48 TO 72 HOURS AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS TOWARDS NORTHERN MINDANAO. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS REMAINS MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13DEC23 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.8S 145.0E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, 
AND HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 50 KNOTS GUSTING TO 65 KNOTS. 
SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 131500) FOR THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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