WTPS31 PGTW 131500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 035// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 035 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 131200Z --- NEAR 15.8S 145.0E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 260 DEGREES AT 08 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 020 NM POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY A COMBINATION OF SATELLITE, RADAR, SYNOPTIC DATA AND EXTRAPOLATION PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 025 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 035 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.8S 145.0E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 140000Z --- 16.0S 143.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 141200Z --- 16.0S 142.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 035 KT, GUSTS 045 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATING AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 275 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 150000Z --- 15.9S 141.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER LAND VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 290 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 151200Z --- 15.5S 140.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 161200Z --- 14.7S 139.1E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 030 KT, GUSTS 040 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY DISSIPATED AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE OVER WATER --- REMARKS: 131500Z POSITION NEAR 15.8S 144.7E. 13DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTHWEST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A COMPOSITE RADAR LOOP FROM MOSSMAN, AUSTRALIA, INDICATE THAT TC JASPER HAS MADE LANDFALL OVER THE EASTERN COAST OF CAPE YORK PENINSULA. IT WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AND FURTHER INLAND UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR TO THE SOUTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS WILL BECOME MORE UNFAVORABLE AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT, INTERACTION WITH THE RUGGED TERRAIN, AND INCREASING VWS WILL RAPIDLY ERODE THE SYSTEM TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 24, LIKELY SOONER. THE REMNANTS OF TC 03P WILL CONTINUE WESTWARD INTO THE GULF OF CARPENTARIA AFTER TAU 36. THIS IS THE FINAL WARNING ON THIS SYSTEM BY THE JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI. THE SYSTEM WILL BE CLOSELY MONITORED FOR SIGNS OF REGENERATION. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 131200Z IS 986 MB.// NNNN