ABPW10 PGTW 130600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/130600Z-140600ZDEC2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/130151ZDEC2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 3.7N 
145.9E, APPROXIMATELY 623 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF YAP. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND A 122306Z 89GHZ AMSU-B MICROWAVE PASS DEPICT 
SPARSE CONVECTION ON THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES OF A PARTIALLY 
OBSCURED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 122325Z METOP-B 
SCATTEROMETER PASS SHOWS A PATCH OF 20-25KT WINDS WELL TO THE 
NORTH OF THE BROAD LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEAL MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH VERY WARM (30-31C) SST, AND 
MODERATE EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW OFFSET BY MODERATE (20KT) VWS. NUMERICAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 91W WILL CONSOLIDATE ON A NORTHWESTWARD 
TRAJECTORY TOWARD SOUTHERN PHILIPPINES.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 13DEC23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 15.7S 146.4E, APPROXIMATELY 80 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, 
AUSTRALIA, AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 55 KNOTS GUSTING TO 70 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 130300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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