WTPS31 PGTW 081500 MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 015// RMKS/ 1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER) WARNING NR 015 01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN SOUTHPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 081200Z --- NEAR 15.0S 156.5E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 180 DEGREES AT 05 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 030 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 110 KT, GUSTS 135 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 045 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 125 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 155 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 105 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 15.0S 156.5E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 15.5S 155.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 235 DEG/ 04 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 091200Z --- 16.0S 155.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 085 KT, GUSTS 105 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 250 DEG/ 05 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 100000Z --- 16.3S 154.3E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 110 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 255 DEG/ 05 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 101200Z --- 16.6S 153.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 080 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 170 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 265 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 111200Z --- 16.8S 150.9E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 121200Z --- 16.7S 148.6E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 065 KT, GUSTS 080 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 270 DEG/ 06 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 131200Z --- 16.6S 146.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 075 KT, GUSTS 090 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 040 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 100 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 120 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT --- REMARKS: 081500Z POSITION NEAR 15.1S 156.3E. 08DEC23. TROPICAL CYCLONE 03P (JASPER), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 628 NM EAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE AT 081200Z IS 947 MB. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 081200Z IS 40 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 082100Z, 090300Z, 090900Z AND 091500Z.// NNNN