ABPW10 PGTW 041500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/041500Z-050600ZDEC2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/041421ZDEC2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.7S 158.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, GUADALCANAL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 041059Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS ALSO SHOWING IMPROVED 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 92P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCEPTIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CORAL SEA AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A (WTPS21 PGTW 041430) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 2.B.(1) TO HIGH.//
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