WTPS21 PGTW 041430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92P)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 8.4S 157.9E TO 10.8S 157.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 25 TO 30 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 041400Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 8.6S 157.7E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING SOUTHWESTWARD AT 07 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 8.7S 158.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.6S 157.7E, APPROXIMATELY 147 NM 
WEST-NORTHWEST OF HONIARA, GUADALCANAL. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND 041059Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT 
FRAGMENTED FORMATIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE SYSTEM IS ALSO SHOWING IMPROVED 
PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 92P IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH EXCEPTIONAL POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM (29C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH (20-30 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92P WILL TRACK 
SOUTHWARD INTO THE CORAL SEA AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 
24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
051430Z.//
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