ABIO10 PGTW 011800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/011800Z-021800ZDEC2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011451ZDEC2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
10.3N 85.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.0N 84.3E, APPROXIMATELY 301 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
011316Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD AREA OF TURNING 
WITH DEEP BUT FRAGMENTED BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS REFLECTED BY LOW (10-15KT) VWS, WARM 
(29-30C) SST, AND MODERATE DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO IN 
A REGION OF STRONG BACKGROUND VORTICITY WITHIN THE MONSOON TROUGH. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT OF A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
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