ABIO10 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/011500Z-011800ZDEC2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/011451ZDEC2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.4N 86.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 352NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
011316Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD AREA OF TURNING 
WITH DEEP, CONSOLIDATING BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE 
CONDITIONS FOR INTENSIFICATION AS REFLECTED BY LOW (10-15KT) VWS, WARM 
(29-30C) SST, AND GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG 
AGREEMENT OF A NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE 
SYSTEM CONTINUES TO CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF A 
(WTPN21 PGTW 011500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1) TO 
HIGH.//
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