WTIO21 PGTW 011500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
180 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 9.7N 86.2E TO 16.1N 80.9E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120112Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.3N 85.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.4N 86.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.3N 85.6E, APPROXIMATELY 352NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
011316Z 89GHZ GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A VERY BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH  
DEEP, CONSOLIDATING BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS 
FOR INTENSIFICATION AS REFLECTED BY LOW (10-15KT) VWS, WARM (29-30C) SST, 
AND GOOD DUAL-CHANNEL OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN STRONG AGREEMENT OF A 
NORTHWESTERLY TRACK OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS WHILE THE SYSTEM CONTINUES TO 
CONSOLIDATE. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE 
NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
021500Z.//
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