ABIO10 PGTW 010300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/010300Z-011800ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
8.7N 86.5E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 9.4N 86.3E, APPROXIMATELY 420 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 010142Z GMI MICROWAVE IMAGE REVEAL A BROAD CIRCULATION WITH 
PERSISTENT CONVECTION AND FRAGMENTED BANDS BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE 
EASTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE LLCC. DEEP CONVECTION HAS GROWN IN COVERAGE 
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CIRCULATION IS EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON 
TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL FROM THE SOUTH OF SRI LANKA TO 
THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUMATRA, ENHANCED BY THE MADDEN-JULIAN 
OSCILLATION (MJO). A 301500Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS DEPICTS A BELT OF 
SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED ON THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM 
WRAPPING AROUND TO EASTERLY WINDS ON THE POLEWARD SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL 
WINDSHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE UPPER-
LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 
95B WILL TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE 
NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 
23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM//
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