ABIO10 PGTW 301800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/301800ZNOV2023-011800ZDEC2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.5N 91.2E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.7N 86.5E, APPROXIMATELY 454 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE 
IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 301224Z SSMIS MICROWAVE REVEAL A BROAD, ELONGATED 
CIRCULATION WITH FLARING CONVECTION TO THE NORTHEAST. THE CIRCULATION IS 
EMBEDDED WITHIN A MONSOON TROUGH DRAPED ACROSS THE BAY OF BENGAL FROM 
THE SOUTH OF SRI LANKA TO THE NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUMATRA, ENHANCED BY 
THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO). A 301500Z ASCAT METOP-B PASS 
DEPICTS A BELT OF SOUTHWESTERLY WINDS ARE OBSERVED ON THE EQUATORWARD 
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM WRAPPING AROUND TO EASTERLY WINDS ON THE POLEWARD 
SIDE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW 
(10-15KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, 
AND MODERATE UPPER-LEVEL POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD 
INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL AND GRADUALLY CONSOLIDATE OVER THE NEXT 24-48 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN