ABIO10 PGTW 291800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/291800Z-301800ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 
291150Z SSMIS MICROWAVE SERIES CHARACTERIZED BY CONVECTION THAT IS 
WEAKENING AND DEVELOPING WARMER TOPS. THIS MAKES IT CHALLENGING TO 
PRECISELY IDENTIFY THE CIRCULATION. THE MADDEN-JULIAN OSCILLATION (MJO), 
WHICH HAS BEEN DORMANT FOR SEVERAL WEEKS, HAS REEMERGED OVER THE BAY OF 
BENGAL. ANOMALOUS WESTERLY WINDS ARE STRENGTHENING ON THE EQUATORIAL 
SIDE OF THE SYSTEM, WHILE STEADY EASTERLY WINDS PERSIST OVER THE 
POLEWARD SIDE ACROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA. THIS PATTERN HAS CREATED A 
DISTINCT MONSOON TROUGH EXTENDING FROM THE SOUTH OF SRI LANKA TO THE 
NORTHWESTERN TIP OF SUMATRA. ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS 
INDICATES A STEADY INCREASE IN MOISTURE GRADIENT LEVEL FLOW, SUGGESTING 
THE SYSTEM IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. 
ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE ALSO POINTS TOWARDS DEVELOPMENT, WITH THE SYSTEM 
LIKELY TO INTENSIFY NEAR THE 90TH MERIDIAN. THIS SUGGEST THAT THE SYSTEM 
IS BECOMING MORE ORGANIZED AND FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL 
WINDSHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL 
OUTFLOW, AND A STEADY SIGNAL INCREASE IN THE 850 MB VORTICITY CHART. THE 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 95B WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
STEADILY NORTHWESTWARD INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS, 
UNDERGOING FURTHER DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE WAY. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 24 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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