ABIO10 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/290300Z-291800ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 5.1N 
91.6E, APPROXIMATELY 857 NM SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI, INDIA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 282342Z SSMIS MICROWAVE 
SERIES SHOW A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH ROBUST DEEP 
CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHEASTERN SECTOR. THERE IS ALSO DEVELOPING 
CURVED BANDING OVER THE SOUTHEASTERN SECTOR OF THE CIRCULATION 
EXTENDING ALL THE WAY TO THE NORTHWEST TIP OF SUMATRA. THE LLC IS 
BROAD AND RELATIVELY CLOUD FREE. THE SYSTEM EXISTS IN THE LONE 
FAVORABLE AREA FOR DEVELOPMENT OVER THE ENTIRE THEATRE, WITH EXTENSIVE 
DIVERGENCE OVER THE ENTIRE BAY OF BENGAL. THE MADDEN JULIAN 
OSCILLATION THAT HAS BEEN MOSTLY NON-EXISTENT FOR THE PAST SEVERAL 
WEEKS HAS RISEN FROM THE DEAD OVER THE BAY OF BENGAL AND ANOMALOUS 
WESTERLIES ARE INCREASING ON THE EQUATORIAL SIDE OF THE SYSTEM.  
STEADY EASTERLIES OVER THE POLEWARD SIDE OF THE SYSTEM HAVE SURGED 
ACROSS THE MALAY PENINSULA, MAKING FOR A DISCERNABLE MONSOON TROF 
THAT EXTENDS FROM THE NORTHEASTERN TIP OF SRI LANKA TO THE NORTHWEST 
TIP OF SUMATRA.  ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER LOOPS SHOW A STEADY 
INCREASE IN CONSOLIDATION OF MOIST GRADIENT LEVEL FLOW.  ENSEMBLE 
MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES A CLEAR AND STEADY TREND TOWARD DEVELOPMENT, 
WITH THE SYSTEM LIKELY TO CONSOLIDATE AND DEEPEN NEAR THE 90TH 
MERIDIAN. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES FAVORABLE CONDITIONS WITH 
LOW (10-15KTS) VERTICAL WINDSHEAR, WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES, GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, AND A STEADY SIGNAL INCREASE 
IN THE 850 MB VORTICITY CHART. THE GLOBAL MODELS AGREE ON A STEADY 
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OF INVEST 95B WITH A STEADY DEVELOPMENT CYCLE AS 
IT TRACKS FURTHER INTO THE BAY OF BENGAL OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA. 1.B.(1).//
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