ABPW10 PGTW 250600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/250600Z-260600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.1N 107.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.4N 106.5E, APPROXIMATELY 243 NM 
NORTHEAST OF SINGAPORE. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 
242301Z SSMIS 91GHZ MICROWAVE PASS DEPICTS A BROAD AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE BURSTS DISPLACED TO THE 
NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. A 241436Z ASCAT-C IMAGE REVEALS 5-10 
KT WINDS AROUND THE BROAD LLC WITH STRONGER 25-30 KT WINDS 160 NM TO THE 
NORTH WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 
99W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, CLIMATOLOGICALLY 
HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES, OFFSET BY WARM (28-29C) SSTS. GLOBAL MODELS 
GENERALLY HAVE VERY POOR CONFIDENCE THAT 99W WILL REACH WARNING CRITERIA 
IN WITHIN THE SOUTH CHINA SEA.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 16 TO 18 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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