ABPW10 PGTW 240600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/240600Z-250600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.0N 108.6E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.1N 107.8E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF PHUKET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD AND WEAK LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH SOME DEEP CONVECTIVE 
BURSTS DISPLACED TO THE NORTH AND WEST OF THE CIRCULATION. A 240239Z 
ASCAT-B IMAGE REVEALS 5-15 KT WINDS AROUND THE LLC WITH STRONGER 25-30 KT 
WINDS 160 NM TO THE NORTH WITHIN THE NORTHEAST SURGE. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN AN UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE TO HIGH (20-25 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND CLIMATOLOGICALLY HIGH SURFACE PRESSURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE 
NEXT 48 HOURS. GLOBAL MODELS HAVE BACKED OFF ON DEVELOPMENT OF THE SYSTEM 
FROM PREVIOUS RUNS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 
TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1008 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS DOWNGRADED TO LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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