ABPW10 PGTW 231500
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/231500Z-240600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.2N 109.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.0N 108.6E, APPROXIMATELY 624 NM EAST OF 
PHUKET. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 231033Z SSMIS 
91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) WITH 
FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE NORTHERN AND SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES. THE 
CIRCULATION IS LOCATED ADJACENT TO A 20-25 KNOT NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 
48 HOURS BUT DISAGREE ON DEVELOPMENT. GFS HAS 99W CONTINUING TO DEEPEN 
BEFORE CROSSING THE MALAY PENINSULA WHILE ECMWF HAS VERY LITTLE IN TERMS 
OF INTENSIFICATION. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 
TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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