ABPW10 PGTW 230600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/230600Z-240600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.9N 110.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.2N 109.8E, APPROXIMATELY 688 NM EAST OF 
PHUKET. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 230232Z GMI 89 GHZ 
MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A LARGE AREA OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING OBSCURED BY 
DISORGANIZED DEEP CONVECTION SOUTHEAST OF VIETNAM. RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY 
AND SURFACE OBSERVATIONS INDICATE A BROAD CIRCULATION ADJACENT TO A 20-25 
KNOT NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 99W IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
(5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 99W WILL TRACK 
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS BUT DISAGREE ON DEVELOPMENT. GFS HAS 99W 
CONTINUING TO DEEPEN BEFORE CROSSING THE MALAY PENINSULA WHILE ECMWF HAS 
VERY LITTLE IN TERMS OF INTENSIFICATION.  MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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