ABPW10 PGTW 170600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/170600Z-180600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/ 
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 17W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
5.8N 136.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 8.4N 136.0E, APPROXIMATELY 151 NM 
WSW OF YAP. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170056 
ASCAT METOP-C PASS DEPICT AN EXPOSED, HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION (LLC) ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE 
NORTHERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM 
IS IN A MARGINALLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT 
THAT THE SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH 
LITTLE TO NO DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL 
PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 6.8N 
154.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.1N 151.3E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST OF 
CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 170002Z ASCAT 
METOP-B DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DEEP 
CONVECTION TO THE SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE 
SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW 
ALOFT, LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM 
WILL BRIEFLY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH 
INVEST 97W, AND THEN MOVE OUT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITH LITTLE TO NO 
INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 02P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
26.9S 176.8W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 29.68S 175.2W, APPROXIMATELY 667 NM 
NORTHEAST OF AUCKLAND. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A 
SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL 
AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE, FEATURES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY AND 
A 170104Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS A RAGGED AND ILL-DEFINED 
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPMENTAL FRONTS 
EXTENDING EQUATORWARD FROM THE CENTER, TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL 
SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR 
TROPICAL TRANSITION DEFINED BY A LAYER OF DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED OVER 
THE CIRCULATION, STRONG WESTERLIES ALOFT, VERY HIGH (40-50KT) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR, AND VERY COOL (21-23C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 02P WILL TRACK SOUTH-
SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, WITH AN EXPANDING AND 
ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
999 MB. FOR HAZARDS AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER 
SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED 
FORECAST AUTHORITY. THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.//
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