ABIO10 PGTW 161800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/161800Z-
171800ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
18.0N 87.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.6N 87.6E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM SOUTH 
OF KOLKATA. MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FLARING CONVECTION OFFSET TO 
THE NORTHEAST OF THE LLCC. A 161452Z ASCAT B BULLSEYE PASS REVEALS AN 
ELONGATED CIRCULATION OF 30-35 KTS WINDS ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN 
PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
CHARACTERIZED BY VERY HIGH (40-50 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), OFFSET 
BY MODERATE OUTFLOW ALOFT AND CONDUCIVE (28-29C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS). GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT 94B WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD UNTIL IT MAKES LANDFALL WITHIN THE 
NEXT-24-36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 
32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1002 MB. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. SEE REF A (WTIO21 PGTW 160730) 
FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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