ABPW10 PGTW 161400
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/REISSUED/161400Z-170600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
4.8N 168.1E HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (RMNTS 17W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.1N 139.1E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 5.8N 136.8E, APPROXIMATELY 160 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS 
AN EXPOSED, HIGHLY ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ACCOMPANIED 
BY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION ACROSS THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY 
UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH WARM (29-30 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (30-40 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
AND WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE 
SYSTEM WILL TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH LITTLE TO NO 
DEVELOPMENT OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (3) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 98W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.8N 
154.8E, APPROXIMATELY 174 NM EAST OF CHUUK. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY AND AN 110348Z AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A 
BROAD AREA OF TURNING ACCOMPANIED BY AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE 
SOUTHWEST. ENVIRONMENT ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURE. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL 
BRIEFLY INTERACT WITH THE REMNANT VORTICITY ASSOCIATED WITH INVEST 
97W, AND THEN MOVE OUT TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST WHILE STEADILY DEVELOPING 
OVER THE NEXT 24-48HRS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (4) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 02P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 
26.9S 176.8W, APPROXIMATELY 357 NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF TONGA. THE 
SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY CLASSIFIED AS A SUBTROPICAL CYCLONE, GENERALLY 
CHARACTERIZED AS HAVING BOTH TROPICAL AND MIDLATITUDE CYCLONE 
FEATURES. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY and a 160615Z 
SSMIS 91HZ IMAGE DEPICT A RAGGED AND ILL-DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION 
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEVELOPMENTAL FRONTS EXTENDING EQUATORWARD FROM THE 
CENTER, TYPICAL OF A SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
REVEALS UNFAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR TROPICAL TRANSITION DEFINED BY A 
LAYER OF DRY AIR BEING ADVECTED OVER THE CIRCULATION, STRONG 
WESTERLIES ALOFT, VERY HIGH (40-50KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND VERY 
COOL (21-23C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN AGREEMENT 
THAT THE REMNANTS OF TC 02P WILL TRACK SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD WHILE 
CONTINUING TO WEAKEN, AND A EXAPNDING AND ASYMMETRIC WIND FIELD. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 40 TO 45 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 999 MB. FOR HAZARDS 
AND WARNINGS, REFERENCE THE FLEET WEATHER CENTER SAN DIEGO HIGH WINDS 
AND SEAS PRODUCT OR REFER TO LOCAL WMO DESIGNATED FORECAST AUTHORITY. 
THE POTENTIAL FOR TRANSITION INTO A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE 
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUBTROPICAL SYSTEMS.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED AREA IN 2.C.(1) AS A LOW.//
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