WTIO21 PGTW 160730
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 94B)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.8N 87.3E TO 21.9N 89.7E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 28 TO 32 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 160540Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 18.0N 87.4E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 07
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
15.6N 86.7E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 18.0N 87.4E, APPROXIMATELY 279 NM SOUTH 
OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) 
DEPICTS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP 
CONVECTION NOW SHEARED OFF THE NORTHEAST. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 94B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, WARM (28-29 C) SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES, OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. 
GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94B WILL TRACK NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY SLIGHTLY BEFORE INTERACTING WITH 
LAND WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 28 TO 32 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
170730Z.//
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