ABIO10 PGTW 151800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/151800Z-
161800ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
14.8N 86.8E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 15.6N 86.7E, APPROXIMATELY 87.0 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 151512Z METOP-B ASCAT IMAGE DEPICT A PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH CONSOLIDATING CONVECTION TO THE NORTH-
NORTHEAST AND 25 KNOT WINDS IN THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL 
ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 94B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, MODERATE (15-20 KTS) 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (28-29 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 94B WILL TRACK NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AND 
CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 28 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO 
MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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