ABPW10 PGTW 150600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS/150600Z-160600ZNOV2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/150152ZNOV2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 97W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
3.5N 170.9E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.8N 168.1E, APPROXIMATELY 235 NM 
SOUTH OF KWAJALEIN. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A 
BROAD AREA OF LOW-LEVEL TURNING WITH SCATTERED CONVECTION COVERING THE 
AREA. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 97W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
(10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM (30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 97W WILL TRACK 
IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION BUT DISAGREE ON INTENSIFICATION. GFS 
IS AGGRESSIVE WHILE ECMWF SHOWS CONSIDERABLY LESS DEVELOPMENT FOR THE 
SYSTEM. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 12 TO 17 
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (REMNANTS 17W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 6.1N 
139.1E, APPROXIMATELY 277 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN EXPOSED, ELONGATED LOW-
LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) ACCOMPANIED BY DISORGANIZED CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS IN A MARGINALLY 
FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT AND WARM 
(29-30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET BY HIGH (25-30 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT THE SYSTEM WILL 
TRACK IN A WEST-NORTHWESTWARD DIRECTION WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 
12 TO 17 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 15NOV23 0000Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 02P (MAL) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 20.3S 178.0E, APPROXIMATELY 134 NM SOUTH OF SUVA, FIJI, AND HAD 
TRACKED SOUTHEASTWARD AT 21 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 75 KNOTS GUSTING TO 90 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTPS31 PGTW 150300) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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