WTPN21 PGTW 120600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
120 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 6.4N 142.0E TO 6.8N 139.3E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 22 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 120230Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 6.4N 141.6E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.6N 141.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.4N 141.6E, APPROXIMATELY 418 NM 
EAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. FORMATIVE SHALLOW 
BANDING IS OBSERVED WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN A 120440Z HIMAWARI-9 
VISIBLE 1KM IMAGE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95W IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW 
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (5-10 KTS), AND WARM SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 
C). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 95W WILL 
CONTINUE TO TRACK WESTWARD AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24 
HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED
BY 130600Z.//
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