ABPW10 PGTW 120300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/120300Z-120600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.1N 146.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.6N 141.3E, APPROXIMATELY 454 NM 
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY 
DEPICTS AN EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
DISORGANIZED, INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. 
FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDING IS OBSERVED WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN A 
110500Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE 1KM IMAGE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95W IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MEDIUM (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, WARM 
(30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES, AND MODERATE EQUATORIAL OUTFLOW AND 
EASTERLY OUTFLOW. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 95W WILL CONTINUE TO TRACK 
WESTWARD, SLOWLY, AS IT DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
N E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.6N 166.4E, APPROXIMATELY 207 NM EAST OF 
KOSRAE. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 110600Z 
HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FORMATIVE 
SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND HIGH SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (30-31C), OFFSET BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR 
(20-30 KTS). GLOBAL NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 
96W WILL CONTINUE TO CONSOLIDATE AND FURTHER DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS 
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE 
WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
7.5S 164.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 7.3S 168.1E, APPROXIMATELY 238 NM 
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NENDO, SOLOMAN ISLANDS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL 
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) AND A 112229Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER 
(LLCC) WITH PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION AND FORMATIVE BANDING IN THE 
NORTHERN AND EASTERN PERIPHERIES. A 112229Z ASCAT-B REVEALS AN 
ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION 25-30 KNOTS NORTH OF THE CIRCULATION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 91P IS IN A FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH MODERATE POLEWARD OUTFLOW ALOFT, HIGH 
(20-25 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), AND WARM (29-30 C) SEA SURFACE 
TEMPERATURES (SSTS).GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL 
TRACK SOUTHEASTWARD AND CONTINUE TO DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREAS IN PARA. 1.B.(2) AND 
PARA. 2.B.(1) TO MEDIUM.//
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