ABPW10 PGTW 110830
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND SOUTH 
PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/110830Z-120600ZNOV2023//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA)
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
6.4N 147.0E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 6.1N 146.0E, APPROXIMATELY 445 NM 
SOUTH OF GUAM. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN 
EXPOSED AND BROAD LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH 
DISORGANIZED, INTERMITTENT CONVECTION IN THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. 
FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDING IS OBSERVED WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC IN A 
110500Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE 1KM IMAGE. ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 95W IS 
IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH EASTERLY DIFFLUENT 
OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW TO MEDIUM (5-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, AND WARM 
(30 C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. GLOBAL MODELS AGREE THAT 95W WILL BE 
QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT SLOWLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA 
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE 
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS 
REMAINS LOW.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 96W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 4.6NN 
166.4E, APPROXIMATELY 207 NM EAST OF KOSRAE. ANIMATED ENHANCED 
INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 110600Z HIMAWARI-9 VISIBLE IMAGE DEPICT A 
BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH FORMATIVE SHALLOW BANDS OF CONVECTION 
WRAPPING INTO A CONSOLIDATING LLCC. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
96W IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD UPPER-
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31 C), OFFSET 
BY MODERATE TO HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (20-30 KTS). GLOBAL NUMERICAL 
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT THAT 96W WILL CONTINUE TO 
CONSOLIDATE AND FURTHER DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS WEST-NORTHWESTWARD OVER 
THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 
TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1004 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST)
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91P) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 7.5S 
164.0E, APPROXIMATELY 224 NM NORTH-NORTHEAST OF NENDO, SOLOMON 
ISLANDS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED IMAGERY (EIR) AND A 110249Z ATMS 
NPP 88.2GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD AREA OF TURNING WITH STRONG 
POLEWARD OUTFLOW EVIDENCED BY CONTINUOUS STREAMS OF CIRRUS FILAMENTS 
DRIFTING SOUTHWARD ALOFT. FLARING CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED AROUND THE 
PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES 91P IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
EXCEPTIONAL UPPER-LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND HIGH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES 
(30-31 C), OFFSET BY MODERATE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (15-25 KTS). GLOBAL 
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 91P WILL CONTINUE 
TO CONSOLIDATE AND FURTHER DEVELOP AS IT TRACKS SOUTH-SOUTHEASTWARD 
OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED 
AT 18 TO 22 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 
1002 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: ADDED LOW AREAS IN PARA. 1.B.(2) AND 
PARA. 2.B.(1).//
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