WTPN21 PHNC 280900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/270851ZOCT23//
AMPN/REF IS TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (WTPN21 PGTW 270900)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
A 135 NM RADIUS OF 11.5N 92.8W WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS.
AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL
CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO
BE 23 TO 27 KNOTS. METSAT IMAGERY AT 280600Z INDICATES THAT A
CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 92.8W. THE SYSTEM IS
MOVING WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.4N 90.2W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 11.5N 92.8W, APPROXIMATELY 1843
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH DEEP FLARING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 92E IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) 
SST OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL 
MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92E WILL SLOWLY TRACK 
SOUTHWEST OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 23 TO 27 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS SUPERSEDES 
REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 270900).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
280900Z.//
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