WTPN21 PHNC 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E) REISSUED//
REF/A/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/260851ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
080 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.3N 90.1W TO 12.6N 91.8W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 270600Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.4N 90.2W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 10.6N 89.0W IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 10.4N 90.2W, APPROXIMATELY 1999 
NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS A BROAD ASYMMETRIC CIRCULATION WITH DEEP FLARING 
CONVECTION ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS 
INDICATES THAT 92E IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR 
DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) 
SST OFFSET BY WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT TO THE WEST AND SOUTHWEST. GLOBAL 
MODELS AGREE THAT 92E WILL TRACK SLOWLY NORTHWESTWARD AND GRADUALLY 
DEVELOP OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED 
TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS HIGH. THIS 
SUPERSEDES REF A (WTPN21 PHNC 260900).
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
280900Z.
//
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