WTPN21 PHNC 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 92E)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
060 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 10.6N 88.9W TO 11.9N 90.2W
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 260900Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 10.6N 89.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 02
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92E) IS LOCATED NEAR 10.6N 
89.0W, APPROXIMATELY 2043 NM SOUTHEAST OF SAN DIEGO, CA. ANIMATED 
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN ELONGATED LOW-LEVEL 
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) OBSCURED BY DISORGANIZED FLARING CONVECTION. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92E IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE 
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW TO MODERATE (15-20 KTS) VERTICAL 
WIND SHEAR AND WARM (28-29C) SST OFFSET BY MARGINAL RADIAL OUTFLOW 
ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92E WILL TRACK SLOWLY 
WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD BEFORE RECURVING TO THE NORTHWEST AS IT GRADUALLY 
DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS 
ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS 
ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A 
SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 
270900Z.
//
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