ABIO10 PGTW 221800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/221800Z-231800ZOCT2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221351ZOCT2023//
REF/B/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/221752ZOCT2023//
NARR/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. REF B IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE 
FORMATION ALERT.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 22OCT23 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 13.3N 54.3E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM SOUTH OF SALALAH, OMAN, AND HAD 
TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 100 KNOTS GUSTING TO 125 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 221500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED 
NEAR 14.1N 87.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 86.9E, APPROXIMATELY 393 NM 
SOUTH OF KOLKATA, INDIA. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE 
IMAGERY DEPICTS PERSISTENT DEEP CONVECTION OVER THE NORTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE WRAPPING INTO THE WESTERN QUADRANT OF A PARTIALLY EXPOSED 
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). A 221506Z MHS 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE 
REVEALS A CURVED DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND OVER THE NORTHERN AND WESTERN 
QUADRANTS WITH WEAKER, SHALLOW BANDING ELSEWHERE. A 221510Z ASCAT-B 
IMAGE SHOWS A DEFINED CIRCULATION WITH 25 TO 30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE 
NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE AND WEAKER 15 TO 25 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTHERN 
SEMICIRCLE. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE WITH LOW (10 TO 15 
KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW, AND WARM SEA 
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (29-30 C). GLOBAL MODELS INDICATE A NORTH-
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK TOWARD BANGLADESH WITH GRADUAL DEVELOPMENT OVER 
THE NEXT TWO DAYS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 
TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1005 
MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL 
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO HIGH. SEE REF B 
(WTIO21 PGTW 221800) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
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