ABIO10 PGTW 211800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN/211800Z-
221800ZOCT2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/211351ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 21OCT23 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (TEJ) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
10.7N 57.4E, APPROXIMATELY 424 NM SOUTH-SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, AND 
HAD TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 65 KNOTS GUSTING TO 80 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 211500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
12.7N 88.3E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 14.1N 87.3E, APPROXIMATELY 318 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIAN. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 211224Z SSMIS 91 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A CONSOLIDATING, 
PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP, FLARING 
CONVECTION OVER THE CENTER AND FORMATIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC. 
ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES THAT 92B IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT 
FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH GOOD OUTFLOW ALOFT, LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND 
SHEAR, AND WARM (29-30 C) SST. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 
92B WILL BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT CONTINUES TO DEVELOP BEFORE STARTING 
A NORTHWARD TRACK AT AROUND TAU 48. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE 
ESTIMATED AT 20 TO 25 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO 
BE NEAR 1008 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT 
TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN