ABIO10 PGTW 201800
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN 
OCEAN/201800Z-211800ZOCT2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20OCT23 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WAS LOCATED 
NEAR 9.3N 61.0E, APPROXIMATELY 613 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, AND 
HAD TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM 
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 
KNOTS. SEE REF A (WTIO31 PGTW 201500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
13.0N 88.4E IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.7N 88.3E, APPROXIMATELY 419 NM 
SOUTHEAST OF VISAKHAPATNAM, INDIA. ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY 
AND A 201341Z GMI 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT A BROAD, PARTIALLY 
EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH FORMATIVE BANDING 
WRAPPING INTO THE LLCC FROM THE NORTH AND DEEP CONVECTION OCCURRING 
SOUTHWEST OF THE CIRCULATION CENTER. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
THAT 92B IS IN A MARGINALLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT WITH 
LOW (5-10 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND WARM (29-30 C) SST OFFSET BY 
WEAK OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT THAT 92B WILL 
BE QUASI-STATIONARY AS IT GRADUALLY DEVELOPS OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS.  
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20 KNOTS. 
MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE 
POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN 
THE NEXT 24 HOURS REMAINS LOW.
      (2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN