ABIO10 PGTW 201530
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE INDIAN OCEAN 
REISSUED/201530Z-201800ZOCT2023//
REF/A/MSG/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/201351ZOCT2023//
AMPN/REF A IS A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING.//
RMKS/
1. NORTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (MALAY PENINSULA WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY:
      (1) AT 20OCT23 1200Z, TROPICAL CYCLONE 05A (FIVE) WAS LOCATED NEAR 
9.3N 61.0E, APPROXIMATELY 613 NM SOUTHEAST OF SALALAH, OMAN, AND HAD 
TRACKED WESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED 
SURFACE WINDS WERE ESTIMATED AT 35 KNOTS GUSTING TO 45 KNOTS. SEE REF A 
(WTIO31 PGTW 201500) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) NO OTHER TROPICAL CYCLONES.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
      (1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91A) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 
9.3N 61.8E IS NOW THE SUBJECT OF A TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING. SEE PARA. 
1.A.(A) FOR FURTHER DETAILS.
      (2) AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 92B) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 13.0N 
88.4E, APPROXIMATELY 267 NM WEST-NORTHWEST OF PORT BLAIR. ENHANCED 
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS A LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC) 
PARTIALLY OBSCURED BY FORMATIVE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION. A 201238Z 
SSMIS 37GHZ PASS REVEALS SHALLOW BANDS WRAPPING INTO THE LLC FROM THE 
NORTHERN AND WESTERN PERIPHERY. ENVIRONMENTAL ANALYSIS INDICATES 
FAVORABLE CONDITIONS FOR DEVELOPMENT CHARACTERIZED BY LOW (5-10KT) VWS, 
AND WARM (29-30C) SST OFFSET BY POOR OUTFLOW ALOFT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN 
GOOD AGREEMENT THAT INVEST 92B WILL GRADUALLY DEVELOP AS IT REMAINS 
QUASI-STATIONARY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS BEFORE MEANDERING NORTHWARD. 
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM 
SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1009 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR 
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 
HOURS IS LOW.
      (3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
2. SOUTH INDIAN OCEAN AREA (135E WEST TO COAST OF AFRICA):
   A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
   B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.
   C. SUBTROPICAL SYSTEM SUMMARY: NONE.
3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: UPGRADED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1) TO WARNING 
STATUS AND ADDED LOW AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2).//
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